Experts advise Russians do not transfer money to the currency

Last week began with the largest since the time of default 1998 collapse of the ruble - by 17% in two days, and at its peak - 40%. Central Bank and the government adopted a series of emergency measures to stabilize the foreign exchange market and maintain the stability of the banking system.
Rate of exchange
Fotolia / kkolosov

MOSCOW, December 22 RIA Novosti. Most experts interviewed by RIA Novosti, the Russians advised, open bank deposits, not to go into the currency and remain in rubles, considering the substantially increased interest rates on deposits and the strengthening of the ruble after the acute phase of a currency crisis.

However, some analysts, paying attention to the instability of the course, it is advisable to keep their savings in the multicurrency deposits. However, in the opinion of all experts, now is the perfect time to deposits.

Last week began with the largest since the time of default 1998 collapse of the ruble by 17% in two days, and at the peak of 40% (dollar jumped on Tuesday to 80.1 rubles, euros to 100.74 rubles). Central Bank and the government adopted a series of emergency measures to stabilize the foreign exchange market and maintain the stability of the banking system. As a result, on Friday evening US dollar exchange rate and the euro were only slightly higher than a week ago, on Monday, the ruble continued to strengthen.

In the currency to leave expensive

"Now leave the currency expensive. Now buy the currency is not very promising, because it is likely that the measures that the government has taken and the economic situation, they will help to ensure that the ruble will be strengthened," said the chief economist at Alfa Bank, Natalia Orlova.

She advises detach deposits in the currency that is. "If the deposits in foreign currency, then open deposits in foreign currency rates there is now also grown. But now it is not necessary to buy the currency," says the analyst.

However, Orlov skeptical of investing in such unconventional assets like precious metals. "Firstly, it is not very liquid, when a strong movement of the market, they can not be implemented quickly. And then still need to work on the financial market in order to understand what is happening. I do not think that investing in some illiquid specific tools is a good solution, "she said.

Chief analyst at Nordea Bank Dmitry Savchenko agrees with colleagues. "At current levels, I think it makes no sense to buy the currency, so I think that the ruble is now worth considering contributions," he told RIA Novosti.

Chief Economist "Uralsib Capital" Alex Deviatov also believes that it is necessary to open deposits in rubles. "I think in rubles now better (make deposits ed.). We have already seen that the ruble strengthened after the acute phase of a currency crisis. I think the situation is normalized with respect to the ruble, if oil prices remain around 60 (dollars per barrel Ed.), it seems to me that 52-54 rubles (per dollar) is just such a course, "he said.

At the same time, according to Devyatova, now is a lot of talk about the fact that the oil price will rise and could reach $ 80 per barrel.

"I think that in this situation the ruble will continue to strengthen, because the negative effects of the sanctions, with payments on external debt has, in general, to win. That is debt repayments continue, but a corresponding fall in the ruble has already taken place. Therefore, I would think that by the summer of some strengthening of the ruble is not very large but can be up to 10%, we will see, "said the expert.

In addition, he pointed out that the rate of the ruble deposits clearly higher currency. "I think that the ruble looks more attractive, at least for the next year," he concluded.

Multi-currency deposits most reasonable

In turn, an analyst Evgeny Koshelev Rosbank less optimistic. "I am no longer inclined to the fact that the ruble will be potentially interesting, despite the fact that he lost his value. Part of the money, I think that one way or another to save costs in the currency diversification of external risks in the first place," said He RIA Novosti.

Koshelev recommends that 40% of savings to keep in rubles, 60% in foreign currency: 30% in dollars and 30% euros.

Of the same opinion and analyst "Sovlink" Olga Belenky. "Experience shows that the most sensible contribution to a multi-most allows to diversify risks that are difficult to count," she said.

When opening a deposit?

However, all polled by experts agree that to think about opening deposit is necessary now, pointing to the fact that deposit rates increased significantly.

"I think I can now think to open deposits, the more bets, as you see, are quite high. You have to understand that if the market will stabilize and the foreign exchange market will cease to fever, the Central Bank can really think about the reduction of interest rates" says Savchenko.

Koshelev of the same opinion, pointing to interesting conditions on deposits. "Plus the trigger that sparked the growth in retail deposit rates, it is caused not only by the fact that customers have begun to withdraw money from their current deposits, but also due to the fact that the market liquidity stress formed medium-term. Therefore, I believe that in January stress gradually settled. There are a number of factors that will mitigate the potential outflow of liquidity from the system, and in this respect, I think that the Central Bank will be prepared to have to lower the key rate, so it will put pressure on deposit rates, "the analyst added .

Orlov suggests that the most favorable interest rates on deposits will be in the first quarter of 2015.

"I think that the best scenario, we will be at the peak rate, probably in the first quarter. Next will be clear, most of all, if everything is normal, then more will not need to move rates higher, that is, inflation will start to slow down a little bit from the end Spring, "predicts analyst.

"If you have money you can withdraw, especially without loss of interest, it is time to shift them at higher interest rates and record yourself here this bet at least a year, and a little bit on this earn," said in turn eight.

Growth rates on loans and deposits

Speaking of rates on loans and deposits, experts say that they will depend on the key rate of the Central Bank. The analysts predict that the rate hike will continue.

"Since they are largely tied to the rate at which the central bank provides liquidity to the banking sector, they will depend on the key rate of the Central Bank," notes Savchenko from Nordea Bank.

According to him, during the first quarter or even half a year interest rates on loans and deposits will be at the highest level, perhaps even grow.

"I think that because we have the banking system last couple of years is highly dependent on central bank money, the rates on both loans and deposits as a whole will follow on how to change the key rate of the Central Bank," says nine out " Uralsib Capital. "

"I think it will continue moving up yet," he said. In particular, mortgage rates are high enough, says the ninth. "And it would severely harm the real estate market," he adds.

According to Orlova, interest rates will rise very quickly for companies. "For retail customers, they may be a little slower to grow. But overall, I think the short and retail loans, and corporate scale rate hike will be comparable to the scale of the Central Bank rate hike," said Orlov.

Braking lending

Due to the growth rates will be a significant reduction in credit growth next year, experts say.

"Against the background of what is happening in the currency market, the banking sector, a sharp increase in the key rate of the Central Bank, which was done in order to stabilize the exchange rate, now we can expect that to happen sharp deceleration of lending," says Belenky.

According to her, the growth of consumer credit will not be. "As if the mortgage will not be accepted any special programs to subsidize, which would give banks a relatively cheap resources, then I think this product is also now will not grow actively," says Belenky.

She predicts stagnation in corporate lending and possibly even reducing retail lending.

"Right now, the growth rate of loans fell sharply, it is connected with the growth rates, because loans were, of course, much more expensive. The growth of lending some will, but it will not be great. I think that in general it will not exceed the rate of inflation, that next year could be 10% or a little more, "suggests the ninth.

RIA Novosti http://ria.ru/economy/20141222/1039675213.html#ixzz3Mf6tk9Fq

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